Systematic Edges in Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are financial platforms where participants trade contracts linked to future events, with prices reflecting collective probabilities. While these markets efficiently aggregate information, systematic inefficiencies create trading opportunities. Notable strategies include inter- and intra-market arbitrage, exploiting price differences across platforms or mispricing within a single market. Behavioral biases, such as the longshot bias, lead traders to overvalue underdogs and undervalue favorites, while bookmakers may manipulate odds to mislead naive participants. Experienced traders can exploit these patterns to secure profits. This article reviews common systematic edges in prediction markets, illustrates their practical application, and highlights the potential for profitable trading.
