Which Investors Drive Factor Returns?

If different investors share a common goal, why are there differences in strategy choices and portfolio characteristics across investor classes? Elsaify (2022) attempts to provide an answer. In his study, he documents heterogeneity in investors’ processing abilities, which is the key factor influencing investor’s strategy choice and finds that such heterogeneity stems from factor timing ability.

According to the results, hedge funds seem to have the highest attention capacity, the most precise information and excel at factor timing. On the other hand, long-term investors (insurance companies and pension funds), brokers, and short-sellers exhibit low attention capacity because of their timing inability. They spend relatively more attention on the fundamental, their portfolios have the least dispersion and variance and their impact on factor returns is limited.

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Factor Trends and Cycles

Bearish trends or deep corrections in international equity markets starting in 2022 and rising interest rates worldwide brought investors’ attention back to not only once-proclaimed dead factor investing. From long-run and short run, during different market cycles, different factors behave differently. What’s fortunate is that it is pretty predictable to some extent. Andrew Ang, Head of Factor Investing Strategies at BlackRock, in his Trends and Cycles of Style Factors in the 20th and 21st Centuries (2022), used Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter and spectral analysis to investigate different models to draw some general conclusions on most-widely used factors. We will take a look at a few of quite the most interesting ones of them.

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Political Beliefs Matter for Fund Managers

Two leading political parties, the Democrats and Republicans, have dominated the United States politic for decades. As a consequence, the significant differences in views on major issues of partisans from different parties may influence their economic expectations. Recent studies found that partisan politics significantly impacts household beliefs and economic decision-making. But do political beliefs matter to institutional investors?

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Are Funds Flows Influenced by Mortality?

Countries from the majority of the developed world face one challenge: Their population is steadily aging; the average age of individuals has been rising over recent periods. The United States is not different in this sense. Whenever there’s a never-inevitable reaching of higher ages, people reconsider their choices and often cut on riskier ones. So, is there a potential link between demographic changes associated with aging and aggregate financial market outcomes?

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Is Gold a Safe Haven? It Depends on the Country

If you’re a regular reader of our blogs (and we hope you are!), you would not miss that we like to touch macro-economic subjects. One of that never-fading topics is the role of gold as a crisis hedge. The probably most known commodity is a popular choice for a portion of the total portfolio, from small investors to central banks, for various reasons (be it diversification or hedging). So let’s not further delay it, and today we ask: Is gold really a safe haven?

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Avoid Equity Bear Markets with a Market Timing Strategy – Part 3

In the last third installment, we will finish exploring the world of market timing strategies (see parts 1 & 2). We will focus on yield curve predictors and incorporate all three ideas (price-based, macro-economic, and yield curve predictors) into one final trading strategy that yields an annual return above that of the stock market while doubling its Sharpe ratio and reducing maximal drawdown by two thirds.

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